houston_13_20170826005217

At 8 PM CDT, Hurricane Harvey was located at 27.9N 96.8W, about 35 miles E Corpus Christi, TX and 40 miles SW of Port O’Conner, TX. It is about 14 miles from the coast and moving NW at 8 mph and has max sustained winds of 130 mph with higher gusts. This is now a Category Four hurricane.

Sustained hurricane force winds are being reported along the Texas coast.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield, TX to Sargent, TX.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for north of Sargent, TX to High Island, TX.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island, TX. For the region within the Warning, surges in the 6-12 foot range are currently forecast.

Regarding landfall point, the forecast continues to between Corpus Christi and Matagorda but now for later tonight.

After that, things still/remain interesting with Harvey forecast to stall over the coastal Plains of Texas. The forecast models generally agree that Harvey will persist onshore 2-3 days before moving back offshore into the western Gulf Monday or Tuesday. Some reintensification is then the forecast as Harvey moves towards east Texas, or possibly Houston.

Right now, my Houston-centric rain forecast is…it’s raining.

Rainfall totals through Sunday are forecast to be in 9-12” rain across the Houston area with locally higher totals likely. Once Harvey moves back off the coast and approaches Houston, the region will get even more rain, which could push total storm totals into the 17-25” range. (As always, we include the obligatory “isolated higher totals are possible.”)

Finally, landfall storms, particularly to the right of eye will carry the risk of being tornadic, so remain storms away even away from the landfall point as storms will be severe with strong & gusty winds, heavy rainfall and a risk of tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for coastal Texas and southwest Louisiana through 2 AM CDT Saturday.

As has been seen through this whole process, things can (and likely will) change, particularly. These forecasts are made with the most up to date guidance and with my experience. I will try to update through the day as I can. I will be working from 12 – 10 PM CT today, so I will have my work obligations as well.

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