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At 11 PM ET, the storm formerly known as Sandy was centered near 39.8N 75.4W, about 10 miles southwest of Philadelphia, PA. Sandy was moving northwest at 18 mph and had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The minimum central pressure is steady at 952 mb (28.11 in Hg).

Hurricane force winds are forecast to be experienced from Chatham, MA south to Chincoteague, VA, including the tidal Potomac, north of Cobb Island to Smith Point, the middle & upper Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Long Island Sound, the coastal areas of Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, and the northern portions of the Delmarva peninsula. This includes the New York City area and Philadelphia.

Tropical storm force winds are forecast for Chatham, MA north to Merrimack, MA and from Chincoteague, VA, south to Duck, NC, along with the lower Chesapeake Bay.

Storm surge forecasts are listed below:

- 1-3 ft in the middle & upper Chesapeake,
- 2-4 ft in the lower Chesapeake and Tidewater area of Virginia,
- 6-11 ft along Long Island Sound and Raritan Bay,
- 4-8 ft from Ocean City, MD north to Connecticut-Rhode Island border,
- 3-6 ft from Connecticut-Rhode Island border east to south shore of Cape Cod, and
- 1-3 ft from Cape Cod to Maine/Canada border

The storm surge combined with higher neap tides will bring significant coastal erosion and rip tides. Flooding from both storm surge and heavy rain (see map below) is a major concern as the storm moves into Pennsylvania and New York. The other map that’s included is the rainfall totals until 2 PM ET today.

At 10 PM CDT, Tropical Storm Isaac was located near 30.3°N, 91.2°W, about 15 miles south of Baton Rouge, LA. Isaac has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and is moving northwest at 6 mph.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the Cameron, LA to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

A Tornado watch is in effect for southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southwest Alabama til midnight CDT.

Isaac continues to slowly work its way across southern Louisiana. Continued heavy rain with associated flooding will be the major issues.

My apologies for the lack of updates at a critical time. My day job as a meteorologist and dad responsibilities kept me very busy.

At 10 PM CDT, Tropical Depression Debby was located at 29.0 N 82.8W, about 20 miles east-southeast of the Cedar Key, FL and is moving southeast at 6 mph.   Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph.   TDebby continues to move northeast and is now forecast to continue in a generally northeast and then east track towards the Florida peninsula.

The forecast models continue to  move Debby to the east for the next 2-3 days and moves it to the northeast once over the open waters of the Atlantic.  Some redevelopment to a tropical storm is forecast at that time too.

After some confusion and fixing on my part, the standings for the 2012 Fantasy season are up to date.  We are still working on getting it fixed in the margins.  But now, I will keep it updated in the blog.  Don’t forget to pick every week!

It’s the start of Daytona Speedweeks and we are already beginning to see the pattern in the weather forecasts that we saw in 2011.  The early outlooks are more aggressive in bringing rain into the race weekend forecast.  In this case, a cold front moving across the Plains was forecast to move partway down the Florida before turning stationary.

The forecast pattern has not changed all that much.  But the chances for rain through the weekend have dropped from what the original outlooks were.  It will not be much of a gamble that the racing at Daytona this weekend will occur.

The race weekend outlook for this first week of Speedweeks 2012 is:

Friday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of afternoon showers, Hi: 76

Saturday: Variably cloudy, chance of isolated showers, Hi: 81

Sunday: Morning showers, clearing in time for the Daytona 500 qualifying, Hi: 76.  Temps dropping thru the afternoon behind a cold front.  Winds will be gusty from the northwest.

Congratulations to Scorpion1969 for finishing in first place in both the Nationwide and Sprint Cup Series.

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