Tropical Depression 8 (US East Coast – North Carolina)

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At 11 PM ET, TD 8 was located 125 miles SE of Cape Hatteras, NC and moving NW at 5 mph. Max sustained winds remains 35 mph. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, NC, including Pamlico Sound. While the low-level center is visible, the convection remains sporadically placed around low-level center.

Slow intensification is forecast as it continues to move to the NW towards the Outer Banks.  However, it is forecast to increase to 35 kts as it makes its closest approach to the coast.  A turn to the north, then northeast are forecast for tomorrow, at which it is forecast to accelerate away from the coast, dissipating during the latter part of the week.


Tropical Depression 9 (Southeastern Gulf of Mexico)

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At 11 PM ET, TD 9 is moving west at 7 mph, located 240 miles west of Key West, FL.  Max sustained winds are 35 mph with higher gusts.  While the convection is more impressive than TD 8, its structure still lacks and is fairly underwhelming. TD 9 is forecast to continue to the west/WNW, with a turn to the north forecast for later tomorrow.  Landfall along the Florida Gulf coast is forecast for later Thursday.

Again, steady intensification is forecast for TD 8, but the NHC forecast is for 65 mph winds at landfall.  It is then forecast to continue across Florida and into Atlantic on Friday. While the water ahead of the system is warm (30°C), it is shallow and with a slow moving storm, it could churn up cooler water.  Shear is also forecast to hold in on the north side of the storm, and dry air entrainment will be a factor over the next day or so.

For both of the storms, the current track forecasts are of moderate to high confidence while the intensity forecasts…not so much.

Updated: 11:45 PM EDT, 29 Aug 2016


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